Offensive Rookie Of The Year Odds
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Since 1957, AP sportswriters have been voting on the NFL Rookie of the Year award. However, in 1967, they began dividing it up into offensive ROY and defensive ROY.
This year, the race for the Offensive Rookie of the Year was a dramatic one. Although it’s almost a foregone conclusion as to who will win the award now that the 2020 season is about to end, there’s still plenty to discuss and debate.
With one weekend left in the regular season, NFL betting sites have released their updated odds on this award. Let’s huddle to examine these odds and make an award winning prediction.
Previous Offensive ROY Winners
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year. The following is a list of the previous winners dating back to 2010:
- 2010 – Sam Bradford (QB) St. Louis Rams
- 2011 – Cam Newton (QB) Carolina Panthers
- 2012 – Robert Griffin III (QB) Washington Football Team
- 2013 – Eddie Lacy (RB) Green Bay Packers
- 2014 – Odell Beckham Jr. (WR) New York Giants
- 2015 – Todd Gurley (RB) St. Louis Rams
- 2016 – Dak Prescott (QB) Dallas Cowboys
- 2017 – Alvin Kamara (RB) New Orleans Saints
- 2018 – Saquon Barkley (RB) New York Giants
- 2019 – Kyler Murray (QB) Arizona Cardinals
Stefon Diggs wants to see Justin Jefferson win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
It's so rare to see a trade work out for both teams. ? pic.twitter.com/LsYzwwkaVm
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) December 25, 2020
Preseason Offensive ROY Odds and Joe Burrow
The following preseason Offensive Rookie of the Year betting odds were from FanDuel:
- Joe Burrow (+230)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+360)
- Tua Tagovailoa (+800)
- Jonathan Taylor (+1000)
- Antonio Gibson (+1200)
- Ceedee Lamb (+1500)
- D’Andre Swift (+1500)
- Jerry Jeudy (+1500)
- Ke’Shawn Vaughn (+1500)
- Cam Akers (+2000)
- Denzel Mims (+2000)
- Henry Ruggs III (+2000)
- Jalen Reagor (+2000)
- Justin Herbert (+2000)
- Justin Jefferson (+2000)
As you can see, FanDuel along with other football betting sites had Joe Burrow listed as the odds on favorite to win this year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
At the halfway mark of the season, it was clear that Burrow was the favorite to win this award. Sadly, his season was cut short by a devastating knee injury after 10 games.
Yet, he had impressive numbers through those 10 weeks: 2,688 yards, 13 TDs, 5 INTs, and a 65.3 completion percentage. Burrow was looking every bit the part of a franchise QB and not a rookie. He also had the Bengals competing each and every week.
I have no doubt that Burrow would’ve won this award if he didn’t get injured.
Other Players That Fizzled Out
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+360) started off hot, but fizzled out in the second half of the season as the Kansas City Chiefs are a pass first team. Then he suffered an injury which certainly hurt his chances of getting back into the conversation.
Ceedee Lamb (+1500) was the benefactor of a fast start by the Cowboys on offense this season, but after Dak Prescott suffered a season ending injury, the entire offense suffered including Lamb’s chances of winning this award.
Running backs Antonio Gibson (+1200), D’Andre Swift (+1500), and Cam Akers (+2000) have all flashed potential as they’ve put together some impressive stretches this season. Unfortunately, their statistical success has fallen short of the totality by the three players listed below.
Offensive ROY Betting Odds
The following betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:
- Justin Herbert (-2000)
- Jonathan Taylor (+900)
- Justin Jefferson (+900)
Justin Herbert (-2000)
As a fan of Herbert, since his days at Oregon, it’s exciting to see how great he’s done in his rookie year. Since getting the start in Week 2, Herbert has exceeded all expectations coming into the 2020 season. As you can see above, he was a +2000 longshot to win this award.
Yet, despite being the backup at the start of the year, Herbert has showed that this league isn’t too big for him or that the speed of the game isn’t too fast for him.
In 14 games, Herbert has 4,034 passing yards which is 7th best in the league. He also has 28 TDs, 10 INTs, a 68.1 QBR, and a 66.3 completion percentage. These are numbers that make him a Top 10 QB and not a rookie.
If the Chargers had a better offensive line, a healthy Austin Ekeler all season, and a better defense this team would’ve definitely have a better record than 6-9 on the year and 5-9 with Herbert as a starter.
The Chargers are a season away from being a Playoff contender due to Herbert. With a good draft and a strong Free Agency, this team could be a force to be reckoned with next season.
Jonathan Taylor (+900)
Of the three realistic candidates for this award, running back Jonathan Taylor was the only one who lived up to the preseason expectations. He was listed at +1000 prior to the start of the season. And, at the end, he’s listed at +900.
Coming out of Wisconsin, Taylor received some hype for going to the Colts as they had a solid offense which included a great offensive line. The rookie didn’t disappoint.
Jonathan Taylor has a 37% forced missed tackle rate over the last 4 weeks
Highest among all RBs pic.twitter.com/TAC3GKaGxS
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) December 25, 2020
In 14 games this season, Taylor has rushed for 916 yards and 9 TDs. He has a 4.5 average yard per carry and also has 35 receptions for 298 yards and 1 TD.
Taylor will play in the final week of the 2020 season. I expect him to eclipse the 1,000 yard rushing mark and score at least one TD as the Colts should pummel the Jaguars.
Justin Jefferson (+900)
Justin Jefferson is trying to become the first receiver to win this award since ODB Jr. did it in 2014. He’s also trying to become the 9th WR to ever win this award.
Jefferson has had a stellar season as a rookie wideout. Like Odell Beckham Jr., Jefferson also played at LSU. However, I would argue that Jefferson’s rookie season is better than what ODB did in 2014.
Justin Jefferson is the first rookie WR with 1,200 yards and 7 Rec TD since Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014.
The only other rookies to do that in the last 60 years are Anquan Boldin (2003) and Randy Moss (1998), who also did it with the Vikings. pic.twitter.com/kdPnRs9HKu
2019 Offensive Rookie Of The Year Odds
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 25, 2020
Beckham finished with 91 receptions for 1,305 yards, 12 TDs and a 14.3 ypc average.
With one game left, Jefferson has 79 receptions for 1,267 yards, 7 TDs, and 16.0 ypc average.
What makes Jefferson’s numbers so impressive is that he’s playing on a run first team and with an inconsistent QB.
If it weren’t for Herbert, Jefferson would be the clear cut frontrunner for this award.
Who Will Be the Offensive Rookie of the Year?
It’s pretty clear, but for those that aren’t sure, Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert will win this award. His numbers are fantastic for a rookie on a team filled with holes on the o-line and on the defense. Yet, he has given this team every chance to win games except for that Patriots blowout.
Justin Herbert just threw his 28th TD pass, passing Baker Mayfield for the most by a rookie in NFL history. pic.twitter.com/xAdyRPXC5A
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 27, 2020
2020 Nfl Offensive Rookie Of The Year Odds
Herbert is a franchise QB and is going to make the Chargers into a Playoff contender as early as next year, provided that they have a solid offseason.
Although there’s no value with his odds, this is Herbert’s award even if he doesn’t play in Week 17.