Implied probability is basically the conversion of odds into a percentage. That percentage then shows the likelihood of an outcome happening based on the size of the odds. High odds suggest a low probability of something happening, while low odds suggest a high probability of something happening.

For example, imagine a tennis player is +200 to win an upcoming match. This would be 3.00 in decimal odds, and 2/1 in fractional odds. The implied probability for these odds is 33.33%. In this example, the odds suggest that the player has a 33.33% chance of winning the match.

This would be 3.00 in decimal odds, and 2/1 in fractional odds. The implied probability for these odds is 33.33%. In this example, the odds suggest that the player has a 33.33% chance of winning the match. This doesn’t mean that this is the player’s EXACT chance of winning the game. Moneyline odds will suffice, as this is the primary format used by the limited number of gambling sites available for US residents. Likewise, if you live in the United Kingdom, then you only really need to know how fractional odds work. If you live in Europe, then the decimal format is the one that will be most important for you to understand.

In sports, the probability of something happening is usually subjective. There are several factors to take into account and there’s always a chance of the unexpected. No one can state definitively the exact probability of a player or team winning a game they’re taking part in. There’s an element of personal opinion involved.

How To Convert Decimal Odds To American Odds

Calculating the implied probability is useful though. It helps us decide whether or not we think a bet offers any positive value. We should always look for positive value when betting, and it exists when our estimated probability of an outcome happening is greater than the implied probability that the odds on that outcome suggest.

Confused? Don’t worry! It’s not as complicated as it may seem. To make this easier to understand, let’s continue with the example of the tennis player at +200 to win his match. As we’ve said, the implied probability here is 33.33%. So if we think that the player has a GREATER than 33.33% of winning, then it makes perfect sense to bet on him. If we think his chances are less than 33.33%, it’s wise not to bet on him.

Convert Odds To Percentage

If you’d like a more complete explanation on this subject, there’s an article in our sports betting guide that explains value and implied probability in further detail.