Betting On Odds On Favourites
If you pick 1.20 odds daily, remember that an accumulator bet of four 1.20s could give you a chubby 2.074 total odds, thus double your stake. This is right in theory, but unlikely to happen as many times. Betting On Short Priced Favourites Some punters will not bet on odds on horses. It must be the fact that any winnings will be less than the stake put on the horse and this to some punters seems 'bad value'. Pebble Beach 2021 Betting Odds Favourites: Patrick Cantlay: 7/1; Daniel Berger: 14/1; Paul Casey: 16/1; Will Zalatoris: 18/1; Jason Day: 18/1; Jordan Spieth: 22/1; Francesco Molinari: 22/1; Si Woo Kim: 30/1; Max Homa, Sam Burns, Kevin Streelman, Cameron Davis: 33/1; Pebble Beach 2021 Betting.
A quick search for betting on favourites on Google throws up hundreds of “fool-proof” systems for making money, which simply require your credit card details and a one-time payment of $100 to read about them. And one of the most common “systems” you will encounter is betting on favourites, because here we find there is some truth behind the lies.
A lot of academic research has been done into the so-called favourite longshot bias in betting markets. All winning betting strategies are based on exploiting market inefficiencies and when it comes to favourites there appears to be rather a large one in place. Put simply, favourites are much closer to “true odds” than longshots.
One major study you will find quoted in lightly researched articles on favourite betting is by two American academics who examined the results of over 6 million horse races in America and found backing favourites lost at a rate of 5.5% while backing from 3/1-15/1 lost at 18% on average.
The good news for bookmakers there is no matter what people bet on they lose, but it’s a significant difference between favourites and longer odds bets. Favourites are priced up more accurately than longshots. It’s also been shown to apply to other markets with particular application to political and novelty markets where it seems the shorter the odds the greater the bias.
Favourites in Football
In the last 20 years a number of research papers have been published to see if this applies to football with confusingly mixed results. Some say yes, some say no and some say both. If you were hoping that a simple “always bet on the favourite” strategy was your route to profit, then think again. But there are some key lessons:
- Betting on the favourite is rarely a bad bet
- Shorter priced favourites are often better value than longer priced ones
- You need to do some work of your own
What various academic and recreational research from bettors has found is betting on favourites generally allows you to lose more slowly. This isn’t a great long-term strategy, but as a starting point it at least demonstrates that betting the favourite is rarely a bad bet. As a starting point, losing at a slow rate is a damn sight better than most punters manage.
For some bettors the nature of betting short-priced favourites seems counterintuitive to their notion of “value”. Risk reward is an odd concept, and betting £100 to win £20 on a 1.2 selection doesn’t seem hugely attractive to many, but research has shown this is often a better bet than £100 on a 1.8 shot in terms of expected long-term returns.
A good demonstration of this comes in rugby union, where New Zealand will often be priced at something absurdly unattractive like 1/80 to beat most sides outside the top six. But losses to those teams are extremely rare. In fact the All Blacks have never lost to an international team that isn’t Australia, England, South Africa, France or Wales. Never. How good does your 1/80 look now?
The All Blacks are perennial favourites. Their 2015 World Cup winning team is regarded by many as the greatest rugby team ever assembled
When favourites betting goes bad
But if you are too cavalier with these kinds of stats you can come unstuck as South Africa showed in the Rugby World Cup where they were 1/100 to beat Japan. The Springboks had similar stats to New Zealand, having only lost internationals to 8 teams in their history. The loss to the minnows of Japan was the biggest shock of the tournament, but it should be seen as an exception and not the rule.
There were warning signs including an improving Japanese side a South African side that lost all three of its games in the Rugby Championship including at home to Argentina. And the final and most important point is you can’t just trust blindly in backing short-priced favourites and expect to never be stung for a big loss now and again.
Take the 2015/16 Premier League as an example of how favourites perform on a long-term betting basis. The 2014/15 season threw up a rather conveniently even 100 wins from 150 games where the home side was under 2.0. In other words odds-on to win. This would have given a total profit of £4.85 to a £1 level stakes bet. Pretty good.
The following season, by early February, there were 50 winners from 91 games for a total loss of £13.75 to the same level £1 stakes. The 2013/14 season had 99 winners from 143 games for a season-long profit of £1.21. So it shows that an expected long-term trend can sometimes go wildly off track.
In Conclusion
So what does all this tell us? Well firstly that this is not an exact science and secondly that despite the 15/16 anomaly there is a lot of value to be had in odds on favourites. What it should encourage you to do is go and analyse the huge wealth of stats and betting data that exists for free on the internet and try and find your own conclusions.
Find a data source and play around with the results. Spot a pattern and develop a system that works for you by refining the data and using your own insight into what might make odds-on chances more or less likely to win. But don’t, whatever you do, fall into the trap of thinking a 1.20 bet doesn’t present value.
Top Tips
- Betting on the favourite is rarely a bad bet
- Shorter priced favourites are often better value than longer priced ones
- You need to do some work of your own
E/W (Each-Way) bets means you split that amount. So if it is a $250 E/W bet, that means $125 on them to win, $125 on them to place (Usually in the Top 5).
Well from a betting perspective, the Phoenix Open was a whole lot of nothing but boy was it a fun tournament from a viewing perspective.
Saturday was the surprising day of Jordan Spieth and my gosh wasn’t it great seeing him perform like that? Unbelievable and I hope he keeps it up.
Then Sunday Brooks decided he was going to flex his muscle and when he does that, nothing can stop him.
Our only winning bet was Xander Top 10. I had a feeling he wouldn’t win and although I wish I had the Top 5 bet obviously, I was happy to be able to generally relax on the Sunday.
I was extremely disappointed in Daniel Berger. That’s one I really felt good about.
Pebble Beach this week. Spieth like 6th favourite ha. Let’s get on with it:
Pebble Beach 2021 Betting Odds Favourites:
- Patrick Cantlay: 7/1
- Daniel Berger: 14/1
- Paul Casey: 16/1
- Will Zalatoris: 18/1
- Jason Day: 18/1
- Jordan Spieth: 22/1
- Francesco Molinari: 22/1
- Si Woo Kim: 30/1
- Max Homa, Sam Burns, Kevin Streelman, Cameron Davis: 33/1
Pebble Beach 2021 Betting Tips:
Must say I much prefer this format with 3 rounds at Pebble Beach then the singular round at Spyglass. Weather looks to be a mess. Rumour is that was why DJ pulled out.
Quick note that for Americans, the sportsbook GT Bets has the best odds by a country mile. However those odds aren’t a factor as I can’t bet there in terms of my picks – so the “Everywhere Else” odds are fine. But if you are American – GT Bets is the place this week. Also should note BetOnline works for Americans too.
Also for E/W bets Bet365 are doing top 8 which I will be factoring in and where I’ll be placing my bets.
$62.50 on Jordan Spieth to win & E/W:
Yeah look I just have to do this one. It’s very possible he is a one week wonder. Think of Pebble Beach last year or the Charles Schwab. Everyone all excited to declare Spieth was back then he floundered again. Very possible he does that again here.
However his performance last week was top notch and it might have just given him the confidence neded. Thise is a tournament he has won previously and he had a good performance last year too. Plus man – much like Tiger at the Masters – you just want to get on this and root for Spieth to get back to it. I’d hate to miss out and be sitting there hoping he fails.
USA:+2500 at GT Bets
Everywhere Else: 22/1 awt BetOnline
$62.50 on Jim Furyk Top 10 / 20 Finish:
Jim has average course form over the years here and hasn’t played too much lately. Despite that he pops on the metrics for me. His GIR was great last year. I think he might be a surprise pick.
I am taking $62.50 and splitting it on a Top 10 finish and on a Top 20 finish here. I think there is enough value to risk the Top 10.
Top 10:
+1200 / 12/1 at BetOnline
Top 20:
+500 / 5/1 at BetOnline
$62.50 on Jason Day to win & E/W:
I don’t feel good about backing Day due to his current form but his course form is spectacular. He plays extremely well at Pebble Beach. I do think the weather will end up being a big factor here and will be a negative and Day won’t do it. Despite that, with his course form the odds make it worthwhile regardless. Just a pure mathematical play.
USA:+2500 at GT Bets
Everywhere Else: 20/1 at BetOnline
Betting On Odds On Favorites 2019
$62.50 on Max Homa to win & E/W:
By the numbers for this course I like him here. Playing a good game at the moment. Solid approach play that I like to see. If his putting is up to par (pun intended) then he could be a strong contender here. He tweeted that he knew his putter was an issue last week and is going to be focusing more on that.
USA:+4500 at GT Bets
Canada: 35/1 at Bodog
Everywhere Else: 33/1 at BetOnline
$62.50 on Kevin Streelman to win & E/W:
Can’t argue with either course form or even current form. I mean no Top 20s in a little bit but he always performs well here. Probably my favourite pick to be honest and very close to $125 for this one. Different setup and the weather plus quantity of picks with those goober Mickelson & Spieth picks are putting me off.
USA: +5000 at GT Bets
Everywhere Else:33/1 at BetOnline
$62.50 on Phil Mickelson to win & E/W:
Sucker bet. Can’t resist. Not an official bet. He could show up in a wheelchair and I’d probably still bet Phil at Pebble Beach.
USA: +4500 at BetOnline
Everywhere Else:45/1 at BetOnline
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